High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 20h — verify the source
Verify
2Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
3Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 20h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
49% 12.0pp
24h volume
$328.8K
Orrery Pulse5% current5-34% 7D range-25.5pp net move
39%29%19%10%0%
5%
May 305%-25.5pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 30May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 18.9× liquidity
2Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -12.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.9× liquidity
3Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ 5.8pp, 1h Δ 0.9pp · Turnover 5.8× liquidity
4Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 4.5pp, 1h Δ 3.9pp · Turnover 4.5× liquidity
5Open
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?
24h Δ 5.1pp, 1h Δ 0.4pp · Turnover 1.2× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
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New York Yankees vs. AthleticsPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 94/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 80/87 88/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 68/88 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 76 | 76/82 64/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? probability down 12.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? resolves in 12h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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