High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
2 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 20h — verify the source
Verify
3Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 20h — verify the source
Verify
5Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
69% 6.5pp
24h volume
$381.0K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-15% 7D range-14.6pp net move
20%15%10%5%0%
0%
May 300%-14.6pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 30May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Top read
24h Δ 6.5pp, 1h Δ 4.4pp · Turnover 4.7× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ 5.1pp, 1h Δ 1.1pp · Turnover 6.0× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
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New York Yankees vs. AthleticsPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 83/82 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 78/87 74/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? probability down 11.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 83% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? resolves in 12h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (2)
IGNORE (0)
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