Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Hurricanes vs. Canadiens
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
2Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27?
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
3US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 70h — verify the source
Verify
4New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
5US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 70h — verify the source
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -19.5pp, 1h Δ -5.0pp · Turnover 8.3× liquidity
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
24h Δ -11.2pp, 1h Δ -0.3pp · Turnover 1.2× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 4.5× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -5.5pp, 1h Δ -1.5pp · Turnover 3.7× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 1.5× liquidity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
24h Δ -13.0pp · 1h Δ 2.0pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesUMA PENDING
High
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxUMA PENDING
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersPAST EVENT
—
Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersPAST EVENT
—
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsPAST EVENT
—
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsPAST EVENT
—
—
Hurricanes vs. CanadiensPAST EVENT
—
—
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5PAST EVENT
—
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)PAST EVENT
—
—
—
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPAST EVENT
—
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxPAST EVENT
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 85/91 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 85/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 67/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 76 | 79/83 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 19.5pp on $0.8M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Thunder vs. Spurs resolves in 23h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.