Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
66% 53.5pp
24h volume
$5.8M
Orrery Pulse35% current30-35% 7D range+3.5pp net move
41%36%32%28%23%
35%
May 2335%+3.5pp from start
May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysUMA PENDING
High
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsUMA PENDING
High
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsUMA PENDING
High
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxUMA PENDING
High
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesUMA PENDING
High
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsUMA PENDING
High
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
Medium
Canadiens vs. HurricanesEXPIRED
—
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsPAST EVENT
—
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Trump out as President by May 31?PINNED NO
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?PINNED NO
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 83/90 92/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 86 | 95/78 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/93 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/77 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/74 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 23, 2026
Read full brief - US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? probability up 53.5pp on $5.8M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24? resolves in 0h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (3)
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.