Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets

Today

5 things to verify

6 observations · 32 resolution risks

refreshed now
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue
1US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Resolves in 2h — verify the source

Verify
Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings
2US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Resolves in 26h — verify the source

Verify
Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings
3San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5

Resolves in 1h — verify the source

Verify
Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings
4Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info

Verify
Open Detail and read the resolution source before acting
5Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Resolves in 26h — verify the source

Verify
Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings
MARKET PULSE
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?LIVE
Selected: shared dashboard stateChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
40% 26.0pp
24h volume
$15
Orrery Pulse40% current13-40% 7D range+13.0pp net move
45%36%27%17%8%
40%
May 2940%+13.0pp from start
May 26May 26May 27May 27May 28May 28May 29May 29
View market
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals
1
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ 14.1pp, 1h Δ 9.6pp · Turnover 3.9× liquidity
High95/100 evidenceBacktest: mixed(High sample)
Open
2
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 17.0pp, 1h Δ 1.8pp · Turnover 5.8× liquidity
High95/100 evidenceBacktest: mixed(High sample)
Open
3
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -5.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 5.4× liquidity
High78/100 evidenceBacktest: mixed(High sample)
Open
4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.7× liquidity
High74/100 evidenceBacktest: mixed(High sample)
Open
5
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
24h Δ 5.0pp, 1h Δ 1.0pp · Turnover 0.6× liquidity
Mixed60/100 evidenceBacktest: mixed(High sample)
Open
6
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
24h Δ 2.0pp · 1h Δ -1.0pp
Mixed55/100 evidenceBacktest: mixed(Low sample)
Open
How we score evidence
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
  • —
RISK INCREASED (3)
Read full brief
WATCHLIST DELTA

Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.

Set up watchlist

ORRERY PRO

Prediction-market intelligence terminal

Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.

Start freeView pricingFor agents / API
Live Tape—

Tape quiet — no whales, signals, or 1h moves above the threshold in this window.