High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 10h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
13% 26.5pp
24h volume
$971.9K
Orrery Pulse2% current2-48% 7D range-45.2pp net move
63%47%31%16%0%
2%
May 302%-45.2pp from start
May 27May 28May 28May 28May 29May 29May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin LandaluceTop read
24h Δ 17.0pp, 1h Δ 14.0pp · Turnover 18.7× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana
24h Δ 15.0pp, 1h Δ 17.0pp · Turnover 30.6× liquidity
3Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -13.5pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 13.8× liquidity
4Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -26.5pp, 1h Δ -4.5pp · Turnover 10.3× liquidity
5Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.0× liquidity
6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.2× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi OsakaUMA PENDING
High
High
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2UMA PENDING
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/83 94/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 85/91 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? probability down 26.5pp on $1.0M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
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