SportsExpires May 30, 2026
Creator

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner

Probability

87¢

1h

+4.0pp

24h

+4.0pp

24h Vol

$541.4K

Liquidity

$27.9K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 3h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
gol.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
81¢
May 25, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 30, 2026, 12:21 UTC
updated 12:35:53 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-30T12-35Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 4pp over 24h

    Now 87¢; +4.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 19.4× turnover

    $541.4k traded against $27.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 4.0pp in 24h with 19.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 04
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 3h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 15:30Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2.9h

    HIGH
  • 12:35Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 4.0pp in 24h with 19.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 12:35Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 3h.

    LOW

Price movement

+4.0pp over the last 24h, now 87¢.

Biggest hourly move: +30.0pp at May 27, 20:00 UTC (to 80¢).

Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
  • 12:00 · +12.5pp → 92¢
  • May 28, 17:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 80¢
  • May 28, 15:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 80¢
  • May 28, 09:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 80¢
  • May 28, 08:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 80¢
  • May 28, 06:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 78¢
  • May 28, 05:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 79¢
  • May 27, 20:00 UTC · +30.0pp → 80¢
updated 12:35:53 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

3
updated 12:35:53 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between Bilibili Gaming and Team WE in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 30 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win Game 3 against Team WE. This market will resolve to "Team WE" if Team WE win Game 3 against Bilibili Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 3 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 3. If Game 3 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lol:

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner"?

As of Sat, 30 May 2026 12:35:53 GMT, YES is priced at 87% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +4.0pp in the last 24 hours, +4.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 30, 2026 (2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$541.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $541.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $27.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket