High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Resolves in 55h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 55h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Resolves in 3h — verify the source
Verify
5San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy PaulHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
83% 12.0pp
24h volume
$1.8M
Orrery Pulse0% current0-0% 7D range-0.1pp net move
17%13%9%4%0%
0%
May 290%-0.1pp from start
May 22May 23May 24May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy PaulTop read
24h Δ 12.0pp, 1h Δ 40.0pp · Turnover 43.9× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 14.0pp, 1h Δ 2.0pp · Turnover 5.6× liquidity
3Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ 4.9pp, 1h Δ 1.7pp · Turnover 11.2× liquidity
4Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -17.5pp · Turnover 24.8× liquidity
5Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -3.5pp · Turnover 3.5× liquidity
6Open
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -5.0pp · Turnover 5.2× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/80 84/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/77 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 69/90 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 74/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 74/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? probability down 18.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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WATCHLIST DELTA
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