High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 11h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 11h — verify the source
Verify
5LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco ComesanaTop read
24h Δ 23.0pp, 1h Δ 11.0pp · Turnover 15.9× liquidity
2Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -13.5pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 13.9× liquidity
3Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -29.1pp, 1h Δ -7.0pp · Turnover 10.4× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.0× liquidity
5Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.0× liquidity
6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.6× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi OsakaUMA PENDING
High
High
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2UMA PENDING
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 82/92 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 79/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 81/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? probability down 29.1pp on $1.0M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
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