High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Resolves in 8h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 56h — verify the source
Verify
3US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 56h — verify the source
Verify
4US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 56h — verify the source
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 56h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
24% 16.9pp
24h volume
$345.5K
Orrery Pulse100% current25-100% 7D range+32.5pp net move
100%75%50%25%0%
100%
May 28100%+32.5pp from start
May 27May 27May 27May 27May 27May 28May 28May 28
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -10.5pp, 1h Δ -3.5pp · Turnover 18.8× liquidity
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
24h Δ 16.9pp, 1h Δ 6.5pp · Turnover 4.9× liquidity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
24h Δ -18.0pp, 1h Δ -10.0pp · Turnover 3.7× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -8.5pp, 1h Δ -2.5pp · Turnover 6.3× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
24h Δ -8.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.6× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -8.0pp, 1h Δ -7.5pp · Turnover 1.9× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/81 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 87/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 88/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 86/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 90/87 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva probability down 19.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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