High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Resolves in 8h — verify the source
Verify
2US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 56h — verify the source
Verify
3Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 56h — verify the source
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -13.0pp, 1h Δ -6.0pp · Turnover 17.9× liquidity
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
24h Δ 16.5pp, 1h Δ 0.9pp · Turnover 4.6× liquidity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
24h Δ -13.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 3.7× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -9.0pp, 1h Δ -2.5pp · Turnover 5.2× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
24h Δ -8.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 2.8× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -8.0pp, 1h Δ -4.5pp · Turnover 2.0× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 95/81 92/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 91/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/80 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 87/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? probability up 16.5pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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