High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 29h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 29h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy PaulHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
49% 22.0pp
24h volume
$971.9K
Orrery Pulse1% current1-50% 7D range-49.5pp net move
67%50%34%17%0%
1%
May 291%-49.5pp from start
May 25May 26May 26May 27May 28May 28May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy PaulTop read
24h Δ -22.0pp, 1h Δ -8.0pp · Turnover 8.8× liquidity
2Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -8.5pp, 1h Δ -19.0pp · Turnover 29.6× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -2.5pp · Turnover 5.1× liquidity
6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -2.5pp · Turnover 5.5× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 88/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 81/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 74/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 90/77 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul probability down 22.0pp on $1.0M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
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