Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
2 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue Recommended next check
Start here: Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings1Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 33h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 33h — verify the source
Verify
3Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
4Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev
Momentum observation
Momentum
5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5?
Resolves in 1h — verify the source
Verify
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?MIXED EVIDENCE
Active target: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
28% 3.0pp
24h volume
$195.8K
Verification target1% current1-55% 7D range-49.5pp net move
73%55%37%18%0%
1%
May 311%-49.5pp from start
May 29May 29May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 31
WHY THIS IS ACTIVE
Orrery is prioritizing this market because price movement, volume, and evidence context make it worth checking before reading the price as information.
3.0pp24h move$195.8K24h volumeVerifysource and settlement path
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander ZverevQueue proof
24h Δ -18.4pp, 1h Δ -0.4pp · Turnover 33.0× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
High
High
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05?UMA PENDING
High
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio NavaUMA PENDING
High
High
High
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya AstakhovaUMA PENDING
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 95/86 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 69 | 51/84 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 5, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? probability up 31.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
IGNORE (0)
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