Direct answer
UMA disputes are part of the optimistic-oracle settlement path used by many Polymarket markets. A proposed outcome can be challenged; if challenged, the market remains unresolved until the dispute process finalizes.
How to read UMA states
The safest prediction-market workflow separates attention, evidence, source quality, and next action. A probability move can be important, but it is not useful until the market is liquid enough, the rule is clear enough, and the user knows what to verify next.
- Find the market's proposed outcome and timestamp.
- Check whether the challenge window is still open.
- Treat challenged or disputed states as unresolved.
- Wait for final settlement before calling the market resolved.
What to verify before trusting the move
Good research tools keep the boring details visible. Expiry, resolution source, official status, spread, liquidity, and related markets often explain why a headline probability should be treated carefully.
- Is the displayed outcome proposed, challenged, disputed, or settled?
- Does the resolution rule name a clear source?
- Is the market price being mistaken for official status?
- Does the frontend distinguish upstream status from Orrery's derived status?
How Orrery handles it
Orrery treats resolution risk as a non-directional research signal. It warns when a market is near expiry, pinned before official confirmation, or dependent on unresolved source/UMA state.
Orrery is not a broker and does not provide trade recommendations. It ranks research work, explains market structure, and keeps resolution rules visible so humans and agents can make better verification decisions.
FAQ
Does a UMA proposed outcome mean the market is resolved?
No. It means an outcome has been proposed. It still needs to pass the relevant challenge/dispute process.
Why can a market trade at 99 cents before final resolution?
Market price reflects trader expectations and liquidity. Official settlement depends on the rule and oracle/source process.
What should I do when a market is disputed?
Treat it as a verification job. Read the rule, source, proposal, dispute status, and finalization path.