Why 99¢ is not always resolved in prediction markets

A prediction market at 99¢ is not automatically resolved. It means the market is priced very close to YES, but official resolution requires upstream confirmation: closed status, resolved outcome, UMA settlement, or the specified source rule. Until then, the safe label is priced-in or rail-pinned, not resolved.

The safest prediction-market workflow separates attention, evidence, source quality, and next action. A probability move can be important, but it is not useful until the market is liquid enough, the rule is clear enough, and the user knows what to verify next.

• Check whether the upstream market is closed.
• Check whether UMA or the venue has posted a settled outcome.
• Read the exact resolution source and event date.
• Separate near-rail price from official settlement in the UI.
• Keep expired-but-unresolved markets in a verification queue.

Good research tools keep the boring details visible. Expiry, resolution source, official status, spread, liquidity, and related markets often explain why a headline probability should be treated carefully.

• Whether closed=true or resolvedOutcome is present.
• Whether UMA status is proposed, disputed, settled, or absent.
• Whether the event date has passed but official source confirmation is missing.
• Whether related markets have different rules or expiry times.

Orrery's status engine separates source status from derived Orrery status. A near-zero or near-one market can show a rail-pinned warning while remaining unresolved, which protects users from treating price as settlement.

Orrery is not a broker and does not provide trade recommendations. It ranks research work, explains market structure, and keeps resolution rules visible so humans and agents can make better verification decisions.