Event
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1 markets in this event family · $398.3K 24h volume · $603.6K liquidity. Share the URL anywhere — the rich preview card shows the cluster's biggest mover with one glance.
GeopoliticsDec 31, 2026
Markets in cluster
1
Advancing
1
Declining
0
Avg 24h move
1.0pp
All markets in this cluster
1| Market | Prob | Δ24h | Vol | Liq |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 35¢ | +1.0pp | $397.9K | $604.4K |
About this event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.