Event

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

1 markets in this event family · $331.6K 24h volume · $758.6K liquidity. Share the URL anywhere — the rich preview card shows the cluster's biggest mover with one glance.

GeopoliticsDec 31, 2026advancing 1 · declining 0
24h volume

$331.6K

1 markets · liq $758.7K

Avg volatility

1.0pp

Mean |24h move|

Top movers

0

Markets ≥5pp 24h

Whale flow

$0.00

0 trades ≥$5k

Source-risk

0

Active UMA dispute / pending

Resolving <24h

0

Settlement positioning risk

Top mover · 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
32¢+1.0pp 24hVol $331.6K · Liq $758.7K

About this event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Orrery