Index
Geopolitics Risk Index
Composite of 24h move, attention, and resolution pressure across geopolitics markets — Iran, Ukraine, Taiwan, Hormuz, ceasefire and conflict-escalation odds.
Today
29/ 100
Across 19 live markets · 24h volume $13.6M
Move
29
Volume
45
Resolution
6
What's driving this
5Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
GeopoliticsVol $327.8K31¢
+11.0Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
GeopoliticsVol $4.4M12¢
+4.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
GeopoliticsVol $245.0K14¢
-4.0Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
GeopoliticsVol $266.2K14¢
+3.0US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
GeopoliticsVol $515.6K8¢
-2.0
How this score is built
score = 0.5 × 29 (move component) + 0.3 × 45 (volume component) + 0.2 × 6 (resolution-pressure component) = 29
Each axis is normalised against a hand-tuned ceiling so scores stay 0-100 and comparable across indexes. The page revalidates every 30 minutes from public Polymarket data — once a persistent snapshot store lands we'll add day-over-day deltas and an archive page.