Index

Geopolitics Risk Index

Composite of 24h move, attention, and resolution pressure across geopolitics markets — Iran, Ukraine, Taiwan, Hormuz, ceasefire and conflict-escalation odds.

Today

62/ 100

Across 33 live markets · 24h volume $33.4M

Move

Volume

100

Resolution

What's driving this

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
GeopoliticsVol $269.6K
44¢
-16.0pp
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
GeopoliticsVol $129.8K
23¢
-13.0pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
GeopoliticsVol $289.2K
28¢
-12.5pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
GeopoliticsVol $434.6K
10¢
-10.0pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
GeopoliticsVol $114.9K
28¢
-8.5pp

How this score is built

score =
  0.5 × 50 (move component)
+ 0.3 × 100 (volume component)
+ 0.2 × 36 (resolution-pressure component)
= 62

Each axis is normalised against a hand-tuned ceiling so scores stay 0-100 and comparable across indexes. The page revalidates every 30 minutes from public Polymarket data — once a persistent snapshot store lands we'll add day-over-day deltas and an archive page.