SportsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Ryo Hisatsune finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge?

Probability

27¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-6.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$30.78

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
pgatour.com
Link
pgatour.com
Type
Source not classified
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (51.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
33¢
May 25, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 29, 2026, 08:03 UTC
updated 08:10:38 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-30T08-10Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 27¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 16h. Spread is extremely wide.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 51.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 16 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 15.8h

    HIGH
  • 08:10Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 16h. Spread is extremely wide.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-6.0pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.

Biggest hourly move: -24.0pp at May 28, 05:00 UTC (to 26¢).

Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
  • May 28, 17:00 UTC · -22.0pp → 27¢
  • May 28, 15:00 UTC · -22.0pp → 27¢
  • May 28, 12:00 UTC · -23.5pp → 25¢
  • May 28, 11:00 UTC · -23.0pp → 26¢
  • May 28, 09:00 UTC · -23.5pp → 25¢
  • May 28, 08:00 UTC · -22.5pp → 26¢
  • May 28, 06:00 UTC · -24.0pp → 26¢
  • May 28, 05:00 UTC · -24.0pp → 26¢
updated 08:10:38 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 08:10:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPGA Tour: Charles Schwab Challenge Top 5
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by June 6, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

pga tour

Reason

PGA Tour golf market — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Ryo Hisatsune finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge?"?

As of Sat, 30 May 2026 08:10:38 GMT, YES is priced at 27% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -6.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pgatour.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.pgatour.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $35.57. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $30.78. Spread between best bid and best ask: 51.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

6 wallets
Open on Polymarket