Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?
Probability
52¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$360.47
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 14, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (51.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 52¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 51.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 14, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (51.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The event window has passed and the market should not be read as settled until the upstream resolution path is confirmed.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.pgatour.com/
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: Expired, unresolved
Orrery verification task Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? State: Expired, unresolved — resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? State: resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 06:55SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 7h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.
Biggest hourly move: +28.0pp at 22:00 (to 61¢).
Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
- 22:00 · +28.0pp → 61¢
- 21:00 · +26.0pp → 61¢
- 20:00 · +26.5pp → 61¢
- 19:00 · +19.0pp → 56¢
- 15:00 · +17.5pp → 55¢
- 11:00 · +17.5pp → 54¢
- Jun 13, 05:00 UTC · +22.0pp → 53¢
- Jun 13, 03:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 53¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by June 20, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
pga tourReason
PGA Tour golf market — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 06:55:32 GMT, YES is priced at 52% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 14, 2026 (2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pgatour.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.pgatour.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $71.31. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $360.47. Spread between best bid and best ask: 51.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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