Will Apple (AAPL) close above $200 end of April?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$243.05
Liquidity
$4.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $4.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 124.4h
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 100¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 99¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.9pp
to 98¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 97¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 96¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 93¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 95¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 95¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 93¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 99¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 99¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 99¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 99¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 99¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 94¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 91¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 94¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 93¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 93¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 99¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 99¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 98¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 99¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 95¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 93¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).