Obedient-Population
0x6c3789734ebd5c9494932e4936b7cc20cfdcd40f
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$118.08
Total PnL
$-220.43
Realised
$1.59
Win rate
57%
79 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?
197 shares @ 6.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.84
$-1.95
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
114 shares @ 9.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$10.81
$0.57
- YES
NATO article 5 before 2027?
142 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.63
$-0.71
- YES
Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch?
110 shares @ 2.3¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.95
$7.38
- YES
XRP all time high by December 31, 2026?
154 shares @ 3.4¢·now 6.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.89
$4.56
- YES
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?
153 shares @ 4.1¢·now 5.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.26
$1.99
- YES
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?
120 shares @ 2.1¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.42
$3.90
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?
199 shares @ 1.3¢·now 3.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.36
$3.77
- YES
Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
112 shares @ 4.9¢·now 5.1¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$5.64
$0.17
- YES
Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?
170 shares @ 0.3¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$4.85
$4.34
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.60Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.00Jul 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.40Jul 28, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUK Recession in 2026?$0.43Jul 28, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLGTA 6 launch postponed again?$11.00Jul 28, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.33Jul 28, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.07Jul 28, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?$11.00Jul 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$0.10Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$1.60Jul 28, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$1.90Jul 28, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$0.20Jul 28, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?$2.30Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$0.20Jul 28, 12:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.80Jul 28, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.00Jul 28, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?$0.56Jul 28, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?$1.24Jul 28, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$15.00Jul 28, 11:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.50Jul 28, 09:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 79 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
79 closed markets, 57% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 01:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 79 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.