Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?
Probability
47¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-12.0pp
24h Vol
$7.4K
Liquidity
$28.1K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 12pp over 24h
Now 47¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 12.0pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 52¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 725.9h
- 18:07SignalHIGH
Momentum down
Probability moved down 12.0pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
-12.0pp over the last 24h, now 47¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 14¢-3.0pp
Trump out as President before 2027?
Politics · Vol $863.0K
- 1¢+0.3pp
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $668.5K
- 0¢+0.1pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $495.6K
- 1¢+0.1pp
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $319.8K
- 100¢+6.3pp
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?
Politics · Vol $310.9K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $302.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individuals in one or more of the following categories between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The covered categories are: - Any individual who previously served as an investigator, special counsel, prosecutor, district attorney, attorney general, or equivalent official investigative or prosecutorial role in any criminal investigation or prosecution of Donald Trump. - Any current or former United States Senator or United States Representative who was elected as a member of the Democratic Party or who caucused with the Democratic Party while serving in Congress. - Any individual who served in a presidentially-appointed role in the federal government during the administration of President Joe Biden. - Any of the following individuals: Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Liz Cheney, Marjorie-Taylor Greene, John Bolton, Kamala Harris, Anthony Fauci, Michael Cohen. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.