Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw?
Probability
37¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$88.59
Probability (last 7 days)
-17.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Wide spread — 49.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 12:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 38¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 53¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 36¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 41¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 54¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 36¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 36¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 36¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 39¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 55¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 36¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 36¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 7, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.afa.com.ar/
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (49.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).