Set 1 Winner: Alves vs Casanova
Probability
41¢
1h
-26.5pp
24h
-9.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$348.90
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 10pp over 24h
Now 41¢; -26.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 151.6h
- 05:22SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-9.5pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Biggest hourly move: -25.5pp at 05:22 (to 41¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 05:22 · -25.5pp → 41¢
- 04:00 · +17.0pp → 67¢
- 03:00 · +17.0pp → 67¢
- 00:00 · +18.0pp → 68¢
- 22:00 · +17.5pp → 68¢
- 20:00 · +18.0pp → 68¢
- 19:00 · +18.0pp → 68¢
- 18:00 · +18.0pp → 68¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Mateus Cardoso Alves and Hernan Casanova in the Santos, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Alves” if Mateus Cardoso Alves wins the first set. It will resolve to “Casanova” if Hernan Casanova wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.
Alerts
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Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.
