Set Handicap: Shelton (-2.5) vs Collignon (+2.5)
Probability
28¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$36.00
Liquidity
$11.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 28¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $11.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 3, 09:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 143.0h
Price movement
+3.0pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 62¢+1.0
Collignon vs. Shelton: Match O/U 36.5
Sports · Vol $15.87
- 35¢+1.0
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton
Sports · Vol $71.7K
- 48¢0.0
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 44¢-1.0
Set 1 Winner: Collignon vs Shelton
Sports · Vol $195.76
- 65¢+0.5
Raphael Collignon vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 3.5
Sports · Vol $3.9K
- 30¢+2.0
Raphael Collignon vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 4.5
Sports · Vol $132.61
- 48¢0.0
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $463.06
- 69¢+1.5
Collignon vs. Shelton: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $1.31
- 0¢0.0
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $3.8M
- 0¢0.0
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $2.0M
- 1¢+0.1
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 4¢+0.1
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 100¢+71.5
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $879.5K
- 51¢+27.0
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Sports · Vol $841.1K
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Raphael Collignon in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Shelton" if Ben Shelton wins by 3 or more sets than Raphael Collignon, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Collignon." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
roland garrosReason
Roland Garros — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Set Handicap: Shelton (-2.5) vs Collignon (+2.5)"?
As of Thu, 28 May 2026 10:02:16 GMT, YES is priced at 28% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 3, 2026 (2026-06-03T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$36.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $36.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $11.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.