UnclassifiedExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Francavilla: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Guy Den Ouden

Probability

62¢

1h

+36.0pp

24h

+15.5pp

24h Vol

$14.6K

Liquidity

$96.2K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 3, 2026, 05:00May 4, 2026, 14:28
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 16pp over 24h

    Now 62¢; +36.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $14.6k traded against $96.2k of visible liquidity (0.15× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved up 15.5pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 57¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 161.5h

    LOW
  • 14:28Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 15.5pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

+15.5pp over the last 24h, now 62¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Pablo Ficovich and Guy Den Ouden in the Francavilla, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Ficovich' if Juan Pablo Ficovich advances against Guy Den Ouden. This market will resolve to 'Guy Den Ouden' if Guy Den Ouden advances against Juan Pablo Ficovich. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

¢
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