Francavilla: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Guy Den Ouden
Probability
62¢
1h
+36.0pp
24h
+15.5pp
24h Vol
$14.6K
Liquidity
$96.2K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 16pp over 24h
Now 62¢; +36.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $14.6k traded against $96.2k of visible liquidity (0.15× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 15.5pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 57¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 161.5h
- 14:28SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 15.5pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
+15.5pp over the last 24h, now 62¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Pablo Ficovich and Guy Den Ouden in the Francavilla, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Ficovich' if Juan Pablo Ficovich advances against Guy Den Ouden. This market will resolve to 'Guy Den Ouden' if Guy Den Ouden advances against Juan Pablo Ficovich. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
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