SportsExpires May 21, 2026
Creator

Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5)

Probability

1¢

1h

-0.4pp

24h

-46.0pp

24h Vol

$17.0K

Liquidity

$22.0K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 21, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official ATP result
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 13, 2026, 02:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 19:00 UTC
updated 19:33:19 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T19-33Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 46pp over 24h

    Now 1¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $22.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 6¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 21, 11:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 159.4h

    LOW

Price movement

-46.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 19:33:19 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 19:33:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventInternazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Martin Landaluce in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins by 2 or more sets than Martin Landaluce, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Landaluce." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

atp

Reason

ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5)"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 19:33:19 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -46.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 21, 2026 (2026-05-21T11:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$17.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $17.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $22.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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