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SportsExpires May 2, 2026

Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan

Probability

60¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

-3.0pp

24h Vol

$8.9K

Liquidity

$47.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 23, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:21
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 60¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $8.9k traded against $47.9k of visible liquidity (0.19× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 161.6h

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Fabian Marozsan in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Fabian Marozsan. This market will resolve to 'Fabian Marozsan' if Fabian Marozsan advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/currentNews consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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