SportsExpires Jun 1, 2026
Creator

Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel

Probability

91¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$23.3K

Liquidity

$77.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
92¢
May 23, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 25, 2026, 08:27 UTC
updated 09:37:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-25T09-37Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 91¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Divergence observation firing

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -1.0pp vs. 24h +1.0pp.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the 1h vs 24h trend on the chart above — divergence resolves either by 1h reverting to the 24h direction or by the 24h trend flipping.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 1, 09:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 167.4h

    LOW
  • 09:37Signal

    Short-term vs. trend divergence

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -1.0pp vs. 24h +1.0pp.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 91¢.

updated 09:37:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 09:37:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventRoland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Toby Samuel in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Toby Samuel. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

atp

Reason

ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel"?

As of Mon, 25 May 2026 09:37:00 GMT, YES is priced at 91% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$23.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $23.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $77.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket