Set 1 Winner: Mochizuki vs Fearnley
Probability
45¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$4.2K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 170.2h
- 10:20SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 45¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 39¢0.0
Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Jacob Fearnley: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 43¢0.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jacob Fearnley
Other · Vol $810.95
- 50¢0.0
Mochizuki vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 21.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 44¢0.0
Mochizuki vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 22.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0
Mochizuki vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 23.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 70¢0.0
Mochizuki vs. Fearnley: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Other · Vol $65.00
- 49¢0.0
Mochizuki vs. Fearnley: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 24¢0.0
Mochizuki vs. Fearnley: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 100¢+0.2
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Other · Vol $11.2M
- 100¢+0.1
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $421.6K
- 100¢0.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anastasia Potapova vs Irina-Camelia Begu
Other · Vol $159.2K
- 100¢0.0
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Other · Vol $145.8K
- 28¢0.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pedro Martinez vs Jesper de Jong
Other · Vol $140.9K
- 100¢0.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Leolia Jeanjean vs Diane Parry
Other · Vol $113.6K
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Shintaro Mochizuki and Jacob Fearnley in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to “Mochizuki” if Shintaro Mochizuki wins the first set. It will resolve to “Fearnley” if Jacob Fearnley wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.