Estoril Open: Tiago Torres vs Hugo Gaston
Probability
30¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+5.5pp
24h Vol
$10.8K
Liquidity
$76.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 30¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $10.8k traded against $76.9k of visible liquidity (0.14× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 25¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Official ATP Tour data
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Estoril Open: Tiago Torres vs Hugo Gaston State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Estoril Open: Tiago Torres vs Hugo Gaston State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 31, 10:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 173.3h
Price movement
+5.5pp over the last 24h, now 30¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 38¢-12.0
Torres vs. Gaston: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 47¢-3.0
Torres vs. Gaston: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 40¢+2.5
Torres vs. Gaston: Match O/U 23.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Estoril Open: Completed Match: Tiago Torres vs Hugo Gaston
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 39¢-25.0
Tiago Torres vs. Hugo Gaston: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 34¢-28.0
Set 2 Winner: Torres vs Gaston
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 47¢-3.5
Set Handicap: Gaston (-1.5) vs Torres (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $379.45
- 35¢-27.0
Set 1 Winner: Torres vs Gaston
Sports · Vol $21.11
- 100¢+7.4
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
Sports · Vol $388.9K
- 4¢-0.3
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Sports · Vol $180.7K
- 9¢+1.0
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Sports · Vol $161.0K
- 2¢+1.1
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Sports · Vol $120.7K
- 1¢0.0
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Sports · Vol $116.3K
- 100¢+62.9
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-07-23?
Sports · Vol $110.2K
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Tiago Torres and Hugo Gaston in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tiago Torres' if Tiago Torres advances against Hugo Gaston. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Gaston' if Hugo Gaston advances against Tiago Torres. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
atp Reason
ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Estoril Open: Tiago Torres vs Hugo Gaston"?
As of Fri, 24 Jul 2026 04:41:34 GMT, YES is priced at 30% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +5.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 31, 2026 (2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $76.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.