Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Probability
0¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$23.0K
Liquidity
$28.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 70.2h
- 01:48SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 70h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
9- 100¢+0.1pp
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $2.7M
- 0¢0.0pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $2.0M
- 0¢0.0pp
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $1.9M
- 0¢0.0pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $1.3M
- 98¢+4.0pp
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $1.0M
- 0¢-0.7pp
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $818.7K
Market Description
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
20 wallets- Worst-Arm9.9K
- Torn-Band8.2K
- Key-Acrylic7.3K
- Overlooked-Summit6.4K
- 0x2dbe…2aea5.5K
- 0xa5ef…296665.7K
- Cheery-Preparation10.9K
- Novel-Chitchat4.0K
- Imperturbable-Equinox2.1K
- Popular-Tower1.4K