OtherExpires Jan 1, 2028

Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Probability

13¢

1h

+3.1pp

24h

+0.9pp

24h Vol

$44.87

Liquidity

$17.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.8pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:24
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 14771h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 9.1¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 14770.6h

    LOW
  • 18:24Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 14771h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.2pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.

Biggest hourly move: +32.9pp at 3d ago (to 40¢).

Show all 59 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · -4.3pp → 10¢
  • 16:00 · -4.1pp → 10¢
  • 06:00 · -9.4pp → 13¢
  • 05:00 · -10.5pp → 14¢
  • 03:00 · -12.5pp → 15¢
  • 02:00 · -12.0pp → 15¢
  • 00:00 · -18.2pp → 15¢
  • 22:00 · -17.4pp → 14¢
  • 20:00 · -17.5pp → 14¢
  • 1d ago · -28.1pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · -27.0pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · -25.4pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · -22.5pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · -22.0pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · -22.1pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · +3.1pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · +3.6pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +5.8pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +5.8pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +5.8pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +7.8pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +7.8pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +6.8pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +6.8pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +7.6pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +7.0pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +7.1pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +7.0pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +7.1pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +8.2pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +8.4pp → 15¢
  • 2d ago · +7.9pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +7.4pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · +7.6pp → 14¢
  • 3d ago · +8.1pp → 14¢
  • 3d ago · +7.6pp → 14¢
  • 3d ago · +7.2pp → 14¢
  • 3d ago · +7.6pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · +7.2pp → 14¢
  • 3d ago · +7.4pp → 14¢
  • 3d ago · +6.7pp → 14¢
  • 3d ago · +7.4pp → 14¢
  • 3d ago · +7.8pp → 15¢
  • 3d ago · +11.4pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · +18.9pp → 25¢
  • 3d ago · +18.8pp → 26¢
  • 3d ago · +20.6pp → 27¢
  • 3d ago · +21.1pp → 27¢
  • 3d ago · +26.6pp → 33¢
  • 3d ago · +26.3pp → 33¢
  • 3d ago · +24.8pp → 31¢
  • 3d ago · +24.9pp → 31¢
  • 3d ago · +32.9pp → 40¢
  • 4d ago · +31.8pp → 39¢
  • 4d ago · +31.3pp → 37¢
  • 4d ago · +29.8pp → 36¢
  • 4d ago · +27.9pp → 34¢
  • 4d ago · +3.6pp → 10¢
  • 4d ago · +3.6pp → 10¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Billion's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Billions (https://x.com/billions_ntwk) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
using the total token supply multiplied by the token priceAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
x.com
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (9.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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