CryptoExpires Apr 28, 2026

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 28?

Probability

37¢

1h

-2.0pp

24h

-10.0pp

24h Vol

$2.1K

Liquidity

$25.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 10pp over 24h

    Now 37¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 10.0pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  3. 3

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 70h with open resolution ambiguity.

  4. 4

    Expiry in 70h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 70 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 70.0h

    HIGH
  • 18:01Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 10.0pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 18:01Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 70h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-9.0pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.

Biggest hourly move: +23.0pp at 1d ago (to 46¢).

Show all 25 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · -11.0pp → 39¢
  • 15:00 · -6.5pp → 44¢
  • 14:00 · -11.0pp → 44¢
  • 12:00 · -8.5pp → 44¢
  • 11:00 · -10.0pp → 47¢
  • 09:00 · -10.5pp → 44¢
  • 08:00 · -16.5pp → 42¢
  • 06:00 · -16.5pp → 42¢
  • 05:00 · -12.5pp → 44¢
  • 03:00 · -15.5pp → 45¢
  • 02:00 · -16.0pp → 43¢
  • 00:00 · -12.0pp → 41¢
  • 22:00 · -6.5pp → 44¢
  • 21:00 · -4.5pp → 46¢
  • 20:00 · -4.5pp → 45¢
  • 1d ago · -4.5pp → 46¢
  • 1d ago · +5.0pp → 51¢
  • 1d ago · +17.0pp → 51¢
  • 1d ago · +19.5pp → 54¢
  • 1d ago · +19.0pp → 54¢
  • 1d ago · +19.5pp → 47¢
  • 1d ago · +17.0pp → 44¢
  • 1d ago · +23.0pp → 46¢
  • 2d ago · +21.0pp → 50¢
  • 2d ago · +14.5pp → 46¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventBitcoin above ___ on April 28?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Binance spot pairExchange priceextracted · high
binance.com
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket