CryptoExpires May 1, 2026

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1?

Probability

23¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

-3.5pp

24h Vol

$553.81

Liquidity

$24.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 24, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:57
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 23¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 140h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $24.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 140.0h

    LOW
  • 19:57Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 140h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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