Bitcoin ETF Flows on June 4?
Probability
100¢
1h
+47.9pp
24h
+52.4pp
24h Vol
$103.32
Liquidity
$553.94
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 4, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 52pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +47.9pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $554 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 4, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://farside.co.uk/btc/
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Bitcoin ETF Flows on June 4? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Bitcoin ETF Flows on June 4? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 07:14SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 22:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 9h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
+52.4pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +50.0pp at 07:00 (to 100¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 07:00 · +50.0pp → 100¢
- 02:00 · -25.0pp → 25¢
- 01:00 · -25.0pp → 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Thursday, June 4, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
bitcoin etfReason
Crypto ETF approval — Crypto.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Bitcoin ETF Flows on June 4?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 07:14:31 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +52.4pp in the last 24 hours, +47.9pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 4, 2026 (2026-06-04T22:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://farside.co.uk/btc/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$103.32 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $146.65. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $553.94. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.