CryptoExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?

Probability

34¢

1h

-18.0pp

24h

-16.5pp

24h Vol

$28.3K

Liquidity

$43.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 19h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 9, 2026, 18:00May 10, 2026, 20:41
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-10T20-41Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 17pp over 24h

    Now 34¢; -18.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 16.5pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 19h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 19 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 16:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 19.3h

    HIGH
  • 20:41Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 16.5pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 20:41Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 19h.

    LOW

Price movement

-16.5pp over the last 24h, now 34¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

bitcoin

Reason

Question text contains "bitcoin" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?"?

As of Sun, 10 May 2026 20:41:45 GMT, YES is priced at 34% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -16.5pp in the last 24 hours, -18.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$28.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $28.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $43.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket