What is the current Polymarket probability for "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3?"?

As of Sun, 03 May 2026 05:43:14 GMT, YES is priced at 33% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -17.0pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 3, 2026. Resolution is determined from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$45.9K traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $45.9K. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $32.4K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-3-2026 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-3-2026/markdown.

CryptoExpires May 3, 2026

Creator

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3?

Probability

33¢

+0.0pp

24h

-17.0pp

24h Vol

$45.9K

Liquidity

$32.4K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 3, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 1, 2026, 17:00May 3, 2026, 05:43

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Price move
Down 17pp over 24h
Now 33¢; flat in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 10h.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 10 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 3, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

16:00Resolve
Market resolves in 10.3h
HIGH
05:43Signal
Resolution risk
Expires in 10h.
LOW

Price movement

-17.0pp over the last 24h, now 33¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 2 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 3 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 2 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 3 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket