Obras vs. San Lorenzo
Probability
54¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+9.5pp
24h Vol
$17.69
Liquidity
$4.57
Probability (last 7 days)
-27.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 54¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 91.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 12:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 54¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 63¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 54¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 63¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 54¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 63¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 53¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 66¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 54¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 44¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6- 2¢-2.4pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.0M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 59¢-1.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $720.1K
- 10¢-30.0pp
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $652.4K
- 85¢0.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $567.7K
- 100¢+23.9pp
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $541.3K
Market Description
In the upcoming LNB game, scheduled for February 12 at 6:30PM ET: If the Obras win, the market will resolve to "Obras". If the San Lorenzo win, the market will resolve to "San Lorenzo". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.lnba.com.ar/
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (91.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
20 wallets- Witty-Diesel1.3K
- Tasty-Meringue1.1K
- Oblong-Lashes1.0K
- Miserable-Onion928
- Selfish-Sender885