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OtherExpires Feb 19, 2026

Obras vs. San Lorenzo

Probability

54¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+9.5pp

24h Vol

$17.69

Liquidity

$4.57

Probability (last 7 days)

-27.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:54
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 10pp over 24h

    Now 54¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 91.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 12:55Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 63¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 63¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 63¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 23.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -37.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming LNB game, scheduled for February 12 at 6:30PM ET: If the Obras win, the market will resolve to "Obras". If the San Lorenzo win, the market will resolve to "San Lorenzo". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Feb 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.lnba.com.ar/
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (91.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).