FC Bayern Munchen vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn
Probability
92¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$18.18
Liquidity
$559.93
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarybased on the final score including any overtime periodsTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarybased on the final score including any overtime periodsTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 6, 12:30 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 171.6h
- 08:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 92¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Germany BBL game, scheduled for May 30 at 8:30AM ET: If the FC Bayern Munchen win, the market will resolve to "FC Bayern Munchen". If the Telekom Baskets Bonn win, the market will resolve to "Telekom Baskets Bonn". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
bkbbl-Reason
Polymarket German basketball slugs use the bkbbl- prefix; route them to Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "FC Bayern Munchen vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn"?
As of Sat, 30 May 2026 08:56:58 GMT, YES is priced at 92% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 6, 2026 (2026-06-06T12:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.easycredit-bbl.de/en/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.easycredit-bbl.de/en/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$18.18 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $18.18. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $559.93. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.