Anadolu Efes vs. Buyukcekmece
Probability
96¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$1.6K
Liquidity
$65.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 96¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 168.1h
- 15:51SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 96¢.
Biggest hourly move: +42.5pp at 2d ago (to 93¢).
Show top 8 of 58 hourly moves
- 11:00 · +42.0pp → 94¢
- 10:00 · +41.0pp → 94¢
- 09:00 · +42.0pp → 94¢
- 07:00 · +40.5pp → 93¢
- 2d ago · +42.5pp → 93¢
- 2d ago · +42.5pp → 93¢
- 2d ago · +42.0pp → 92¢
- 2d ago · +42.0pp → 92¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
In the upcoming Turkey BSL game, scheduled for May 8 at 12:00PM ET: If the Anadolu Efes win, the market will resolve to "Anadolu Efes". If the Buyukcekmece win, the market will resolve to "Buyukcekmece". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Anadolu Efes vs. Buyukcekmece"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 15:51:55 GMT, YES is priced at 96% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.tbl.org.tr/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.tbl.org.tr/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $65.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
