Monaco vs. Bourg-en-Bresse
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+50.0pp
24h Vol
$25.7K
Liquidity
$51.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 50pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 1, 19:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 163.2h
- 23:45SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+50.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Pro A game, scheduled for May 25 at 3:00PM ET: If the Monaco win, the market will resolve to "Monaco". If the Bourg-en-Bresse win, the market will resolve to "Bourg-en-Bresse". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
monacoReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "monaco" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Monaco vs. Bourg-en-Bresse"?
As of Mon, 25 May 2026 23:45:43 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +50.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T19:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.lnb.fr/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.lnb.fr/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$25.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $25.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $51.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.