SportsExpires Jun 11, 2026
Creator

La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid

Probability

28¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-8.0pp

24h Vol

$3.4K

Liquidity

$10.6K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 11, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
based on the final score including any overtime periods
Link
acb.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
28¢
Jun 1, 2026, 08:00 UTCJun 4, 2026, 11:31 UTC
updated 11:31:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T11-31Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 8pp over 24h

    Now 28¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $10.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.acb.com/

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 11, 19:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 175.5h

    LOW
  • 11:31Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-8.0pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.

Biggest hourly move: -18.5pp at 21:00 (to 31¢).

Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
  • 11:00 · -15.0pp → 27¢
  • 10:00 · -15.5pp → 27¢
  • 09:00 · -15.5pp → 27¢
  • 07:00 · -16.0pp → 26¢
  • 05:00 · -13.0pp → 28¢
  • 03:00 · -11.5pp → 30¢
  • 21:00 · -18.5pp → 31¢
  • 20:00 · -17.0pp → 33¢
updated 11:31:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 11:31:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming Liga Endesa game, scheduled for June 4 at 3:00PM ET: If the La Laguna Tenerife win, the market will resolve to "La Laguna Tenerife". If the Real Madrid win, the market will resolve to "Real Madrid". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

real madrid

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "real madrid" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 11:31:17 GMT, YES is priced at 28% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -8.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 11, 2026 (2026-06-11T19:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.acb.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.acb.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$3.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $10.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket