Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Probability
0¢
1h
-34.3pp
24h
-49.8pp
24h Vol
$23.4K
Liquidity
$10.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryChainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot marketsLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Down 50pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -34.3pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 2.2× turnover
$23.4k traded against $10.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 04Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $10.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryChainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot marketsLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:02SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 0h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
-49.8pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
bitcoinReason
Question text contains "bitcoin" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET"?
As of Tue, 12 May 2026 00:02:11 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -49.8pp in the last 24 hours, -34.3pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$23.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $23.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $10.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
