Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/bucharest-mayoral-election-first-round-any-candidate-gets-50-of-the-vote renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/bucharest-mayoral-election-first-round-any-candidate-gets-50-of-the-vote/markdown.

PoliticsExpires Dec 7, 2025Closed

Creator

Bucharest Mayoral Election: Any Candidate Gets >50% of the Vote?

Probability

0¢

+0.0pp

24h

-0.7pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$0.00

Historical archiveResolved NO

Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.

How Orrery handles status →

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · closed · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED NO

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 7, 2025
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
roaep.ro
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.6pp 7d

No price history available

updated 10:29:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-14T10-29Z

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 7, 2025
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
roaep.ro
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

officially resolved

Trust transition

The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Bucharest Mayoral Election: Any Candidate Gets >50% of the Vote? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Bucharest Mayoral Election: Any Candidate Gets >50% of the Vote? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

No timeline events available yet. The timeline fills in as trades land, signals fire, or the price moves more than 3pp in an hour.

updated 10:29:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 10:29:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Politics

Market Description

Nicușor Dan, the former Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election expected within 90 days of his departure. This election is now scheduled for December 7, 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins over 50% of the votes cast in the by-election for Mayor of Bucharest. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no by-election takes place by July 31, 2026, or the results of the Bucharest mayoral election are otherwise unknown by that date, this market will resolve to “No.” If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Bucharest Mayoral Election: Any Candidate Gets >50% of the Vote?"?

As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 10:29:49 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.6pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 7, 2025 (2025-12-07T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $12.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

10 wallets

YES

None.

Open on Polymarket