Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
Probability
20¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$64.74
Liquidity
$4.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 20¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $4.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1571.1h
- 12:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 20¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 20¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 21¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 21¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 21¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 21¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 21¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 21¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 22¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 22¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 22¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 22¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 21¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 21¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 22¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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