Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5
Probability
13¢
1h
-22.0pp
24h
-16.0pp
24h Vol
$5.8K
Liquidity
$28.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 20, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-36.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 16pp over 24h
Now 13¢; -22.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved down 16.0pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 20, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 13:36SignalHIGH
Momentum down
Probability moved down 16.0pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 13:36SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 12:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 2h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
-16.0pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.
Biggest hourly move: -23.5pp at May 16, 13:00 UTC (to 25¢).
Show top 8 of 45 hourly moves
- May 18, 07:00 UTC · -21.5pp → 28¢
- May 18, 02:00 UTC · -21.5pp → 28¢
- May 18, 00:00 UTC · -21.5pp → 28¢
- May 17, 23:00 UTC · -21.5pp → 28¢
- May 17, 21:00 UTC · -21.5pp → 28¢
- May 17, 20:00 UTC · -21.5pp → 28¢
- May 17, 06:00 UTC · -22.0pp → 27¢
- May 16, 13:00 UTC · -23.5pp → 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Chinese Super League game between Chongqing Tonglianglong FC and Yunnan Yukun FC, scheduled for May 20 at 8:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Chongqing Tonglianglong FC and Yunnan Yukun FC combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on csl-china.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
first 90 minutesReason
Football resolution phrase — match outcome at end of regulation.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5"?
As of Wed, 20 May 2026 13:36:46 GMT, YES is priced at 13% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -16.0pp in the last 24 hours, -22.0pp in the last hour, and -36.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 20, 2026 (2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.csl-china.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.csl-china.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$5.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $28.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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