Optimal-Miss
0x4a2be7a7e6e3b41dc2de00706b4c09660ca9af20
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$68.7K
Total PnL
$-156.6K
Realised
$24.3K
Win rate
59%
75 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
22000 shares @ 52.8¢·now 87.6¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$19.3K
$7.7K
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
9024 shares @ 60.2¢·now 73.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.6K
$1.2K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
20000 shares @ 27.5¢·now 29.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.8K
$293.34
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
5333 shares @ 74.7¢·now 88.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.7K
$716.60
- YES
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
5152 shares @ 55.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.4K
$593.93
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
3000 shares @ 40.3¢·now 98.6¢·exp May 15, 2026$3.0K
$1.7K
- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
12000 shares @ 19.4¢·now 21.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.6K
$265.26
- NO
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
10000 shares @ 36.6¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$-1.3K
- YES
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
2000 shares @ 90.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$1.8K
$-30.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
23559 shares @ 11.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.8K
$-1.0K
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$3.5KJun 15, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.0KJun 15, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$451.95Jun 15, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$67.57Jun 15, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.96Jun 15, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYClavicular sentenced to prison?$6.05Jun 15, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.1KJun 15, 09:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$52.90Jun 15, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$101.89Jun 15, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$10.05Jun 15, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$558.04Jun 15, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$0.68Jun 15, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$5.02Jun 15, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$444.25Jun 15, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$0.06Jun 15, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$531.92Jun 15, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$2.03Jun 15, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$134.00Jun 15, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$2.03Jun 15, 07:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?$1.9KJun 15, 02:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$6.0K
Trades
1
Buy share
0%
Window
Jun 8, 23:00 UTC → Jun 8, 22:54 UTC
- SELLWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$6.0K@99¢Jun 8, 22:54 UTC
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$6.0K
1 trades
30d volume
$6.0K
1 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
$6.0K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $332.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 00:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 10:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 75 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.