Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Completed match?
Probability
98¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
+47.5pp
24h Vol
$21.43
Liquidity
$46.58
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 48pp over 24h
Now 98¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $47 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 93¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 21, 10:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 160.3h
Price movement
+47.5pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.
Biggest hourly move: +48.0pp at 17:00 (to 98¢).
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to whether the cricket match between Punjab Kings and Mumbai Indians scheduled for 2026-05-14 in Indian Premier League is completed under the competition's official playing conditions. This market resolves according to the finalized match status as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Any match where an official result is declared — including results decided by DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, a Super Over, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling — will resolve Yes. (Draws count as completed results when recognized by the competition.) If the match is abandoned, ends in No Result, is permanently canceled, or otherwise concludes without an official result, the market will resolve No. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed or permanently canceled, after which it will resolve as described above.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
premier leagueReason
EPL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Completed match?"?
As of Thu, 14 May 2026 17:39:08 GMT, YES is priced at 98% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +47.5pp in the last 24 hours, +2.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 21, 2026 (2026-05-21T10:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$21.43 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $339.95. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $46.58. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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