SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 8, 2026Closed
Creator

Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals - Toss Match Double Delhi Capitals Winner

Probability

1h

-39.8pp

24h

-48.4pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$0.00

Historical archiveResolved NO

Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.

How Orrery handles status →

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · closed · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED NO

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 8, 2026
UMA status
resolved
Resolution source
Primary
espncricinfo.com
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
No price history available
updated 08:39:53 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T08-39Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 48pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -39.8pp in the last hour.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification brief

officially resolved

The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: espncricinfo.com

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram pilot prompt

Orrery verification task Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals - Toss Match Double Delhi Capitals Winner State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification post

Orrery verification brief Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals - Toss Match Double Delhi Capitals Winner State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Source-drop audit

Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent drops

Contributor audit

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow
No timeline events available yet. The timeline fills in as trades land, signals fire, or the price moves more than 3pp in an hour.
updated 08:39:53 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 08:39:53 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Rajasthan Royals and Delhi Capitals scheduled for 2026-05-01 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Rajasthan Royals will be considered correct if Rajasthan Royals is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Delhi Capitals will be considered correct if Delhi Capitals is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. In all other cases - including where the toss and match winners differ, or where no match winner is recorded - the market will resolve to Neither. DLS/DRS adjustments, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, Super Over, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a match winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the tiebreak winner will be considered the match winner for this market. If the match ends tied with no tiebreak used or available, no team will be considered to have won the match and the market will resolve to Neither. If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without an official match winner being declared, the market will resolve to Neither. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and will then resolve as described above.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

premier league

Reason

EPL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals - Toss Match Double Delhi Capitals Winner"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 08:39:53 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -48.4pp in the last 24 hours, -39.8pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 8, 2026 (2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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